Bacon lovers across North America woke up a couple of weeks ago to some very disconcerting news: a possible shortage of bacon supply next year.
The news first spread after a press release by the U.K.’s National Pig Association sounding the alarm over a “world shortage of pork and bacon next year”, even calling the situation “unavoidable”.
“New data shows the European Union pig herd is declining at a significant rate, and this is a trend that is being mirrored around the world.
Pig farmers have been plunged into loss by high pig-feed costs, caused by the global failure of maize and soya harvests. All main European pig-producing countries report shrinking sow herds,” the press release said.
The looming bacon and ham shortage was blamed on the rising price of feeds, which in turn was caused by this summer’s record drought. With corn and soy meal taking a direct hit, pig feed also bore the brunt.
The standard market size of 200 pounds of feed to raise a pig went up to $175, while the selling price of a 200-pound hog carcass ranged between $120-$150.
“The volatility in feed prices is so high that losses can be catastrophic,” Randy Spronk, a hog farmer from Minnesota, said to The Huffington Post. “Producers are trying to decide whether it’s still a profitable business to take corn and soy meal, and turn it into protein.”
But Spronk was also quick to say that instead of a shortage of bacon, consumers would more likely see a spike in prices as supply decreases and demand goes up.
“There’s gonna be bacon,” Spronk said. “It’s just gonna be sold for higher prices.”
U.S. Department of Agriculture economist Shayle Shagam predicts the decrease in total pork supply at around 1%. Other industry experts agree that an increase in meat prices, rather than a shortage, would be more likely, but bacon prices should not increase more than 15 per cent next year.
Janet Riley, a spokesperson from the American Meat Institute, is not surprised. “We’ve been talking about rising meat prices for a long time — but as soon as bacon got attached to it, people started to care.”
